CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jan 2014, 1201UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jan 2014 until 07 Jan 2014)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 240 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 250 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 250 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the
past 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of
NOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is
mainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to
determine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944
continued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta-
gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long
duration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The
source region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the
west limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B
coronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on
the current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest
direction with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow
might arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton
flux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the
threshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90%
for C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare
(20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar
wind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the
interplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic
conditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1
to 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 093, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 04 Jan 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 215
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008
AK WINGST : 006
ESTIMATED AP : 005
ESTIMATED ISN : 092, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
04 1905 1946 2023 ////// M4.0 550 /////// VI/2IV/1 
04 2212 2252 2322 ////// M1.9 ///1936 
END
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